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For All Nails #83b: The Briar Patch [1]

CONFIDENTIAL, EYES-ONLY

From: Paul Markey, Markey Research
To: Mayor Miriam Levine, Chair, NYP PJP
Re: Summer Election Hypothetical 
Date: 10 May 1974

Dear Miriam,
     As you requested, I have analysed the hypothetical
situation of a full Council election taking place during
the coming summer.  Let me first say that if this scenario
makes any sense at all, it is because you know something 
that I don't, but it wouldn't be the first time for that.
     Per your instructions I have made the following 
assumptions:

     1. The election will be triggered by some external
        foreign event,
     2. Most or all of the "Green Dog" Councilors will 
        overtly defect to the Liberals,
     3. The _de facto_ PJP split will become formal before
        the election,
     4. Your wing of the PJP will act in full electoral
        alliance with the PC, and finally
     5. There will be no effective counter-alliance between
        the Liberals and the Dean wing of the PJP.

     Of course any prediction about such an election, which
would be the first in CNA history to occur during a term, is
automatically suspect.  It would by definition occur during a
volatile period in voter opinion, and even minor events during
the campaign could have a huge impact.  The predicted results
below are a baseline only.
     That being said, our survey data shows a substantial 
possibility of GG Monaghan being returned _with a majority_.
Since this is somewhat counter to the current conventional
wisdom, let me justify my conclusion:

     1. Other analysts seem to be consistently ignoring the
        fact that the 1973 election occurred less than a month
        after the greatest military _debacle_ in modern CNA
        history.  Those who voted for Monaghan _then_ have either
        a heavy emotional investment in him, or a strong antipathy
        to Skinner that he has done nothing to assuage.  On the
        other hand, many borderline PC voters have returned to the
        fold since the election, seeing the "steady leadership" 
        they want from Monaghan.
     2. Every seat your wing of the PJP won against two parties 
        in 1973 should be safe with no PC opponent in 1974.  I
        think you can pick up two more with their help, depending
        on the parameters of the alliance.
     3. Your wing should maintain control of the party organization
        in the NC, while the other wing does so in Manitoba.  If
        you are able to act pre-emptively to secure the Indiana PJP
        organization as well, you will be able to use it to influence
        more key races than will Dean.
     4. The PC's losses in the SC will be substantial, but they can 
        only lose each of these seats once.  The apparent double blow
        of Green Dog defections and the Liberal threat to marginal
        seats is really only a single blow.  The GG won nine of the
        12 first-round defectors back: he bought some and convinced
        others.  The convincees are mostly gone, but there is a chance
        a few of the others will stay bought.
     5. The stoplesses [2] of the CNA are littered with the corpses of 
        those who have underestimated Carter Monaghan in the past.

DETAILED PROJECTION:

           State      PC    PJP(L)   LIB   PJP(D)    
    
            NC        15      9	      7      4       
            SC         5      0      34      0
            IN        24      2       4      0
            SV        10      0       5      0
            NV         5      0       8      0
            MB         6      0       2     10
          -------------------------------------
          Total       65(-5) 11(+2)  60(+3) 14(0)

Changes are from the 1973 party numbers, not the GG vote.  The
overall _baseline_ result is thus a 76-74 majority for Monaghan.
Of course there has to be a large swing from this baseline to the
Liberals before Skinner can be elected without help -- my guess 
is eight percentage points.

I know you're particularly interested in the NC.  I have New York
the same except for your help giving Endicott to the PC.  (It would
be nice to take out Dean, of course, but it's not going to happen 
unless there's a landslide that makes this whole analysis academic.)
In New Jersey the alliance works perfectly, with the PC giving you 
Trenton and you giving them Bergen and Ocean City.  The Liberals pick 
up a Green Dog in Pennsylvania, but lose Lancaster to the PC, plus 
another seat in Massachusetts [3].

Indiana, as usual, is where the election will be won or lost.  I
really don't think I'm being too optimistic there (Liberal loss of
four) given how well you and the PC each did last time _without_ 
working together.  Again, _get control of the PJP organization before 
the split_, no matter what it costs.

One caution that emerged from our surveys concerns how the election 
would come about.  If the GG is seen to provoke the crisis himself
in order to get an election at a favorable time, it won't wash as 
he'll look devious.  On the other hand, being forced to an election
by his enemies makes him look weak.  The ideal thing would be to have
him somehow forced into the election by events somewhat beyond his 
control.  It's like that old Negro story, where Brother Rabbit tells
Brother Fox that the thing he's most scared of is to be thrown in 
the briar patch, where he knows that's the place he's safest.  A very
tricky business, but the GG can pull it off if anyone can.

Of course the very existence of this survey and analysis will stay 
totally in house.  I did the calculator runs myself, and the questions
we asked the voters were pretty subtle.  I hope the information is
useful to you.

Regards,

Paul

******************

Notes:

[1] I am assuming that the Uncle Remus stories, compiled in OTL
    by Joel Chandler Harris in the late 1800's, originate in slave
    stories that predate the PoD and thus exist in this timeline.

[2] A "stopless" is a limited-access highway, see Noel's forthcoming #84.

[3] Details of Markey's NC projection (parties in order as above):
    ME 1-0-0-0, NH 0-0-1-0, NY 4-6-1-1, MA 1-1-0-1, RI 0-1-0-0,
    CT 2-0-0-0, NJ 3-1-0-1, PA 3-0-4-0, MD 0-0-1-1, DE 1-0-0-0, total 15-9-7-4,
    interested readers may compare with the 1973 returns in FAN #48.
    [Note: These figures are corrected since the original posting to 
    transfer an MA seat to DE.]

Dave MB